In just a matter of a couple of month, Washington DC will once again transform into a festering pit of political noise, as the 2022 midterm elections provide us our first glimpse at American Democracy in action since the siege of the Capitol on January 6th.
It will be a test of our nation, no doubt, and the already-vile vitriol that we’ve been enduring from the capital is an indication of just how rough things could get in the not-so-distant future.
And this is especially true if the Democratic Party turns hysterical in an attempt to fend of the “red wave”…a political shift that appears more likely than ever these days.
Analysts from two separate groups who predict the probable outcome for U.S. House of Representatives races released their predictions on Wednesday that all move in favor of the Republican incumbent or candidate versus the Democrat.
University of Virginia Center for Politics and the Cook Political Report shifted their House predictions in favor of the Republicans.
The Center for Politics acknowledged that part of their prediction change is due to the Republicans remaining the “strong favorites to win the House majority, and with redistricting nearly complete, we can now offer a more complete assessment of what our ratings suggest for the fall.”
The analysts at the Center for Politics added that after the first quarter filing deadline last week, it is easier to see the overall playing field of the House. Their take is that incumbent House Democrats continued to raise impressive amounts of cash but so did incumbent House Republicans. Additionally, they noted that Republican challengers are either “doing fine or better than fine on the money front.”
And, to make matters worse for the left:
On the other hand, Cook acknowledged that part of their prediction change is due to President Joe Biden’s average approval rating remaining at a dismal 42 percent while the country goes through soaring inflation rates and the president’s Build Back Better legislative agenda has stalled.
That means no Democrat in a single-digit Biden (or Trump-won) district is secure, and even some seats Biden carried by double-digit margins in 2020 could come into play this fall, giving the GOP surprising ‘reach’ opportunities,” Cook wrote.
The “red wave” is looking surer all the time, and the Democrats may need more than a miracle to remain relevant come November.
