For the Democrats, the 2022 midterm strategy is obvious: Rile up their voters with any and every piece of narrative they can, just so long as it doesn’t lead back to the economy.
That’s because US President Joe Biden has been abysmal on the economic subject, having allowed US inflation to rise to its most pressing level in 40+ years during his first 18 months in office. If voters want to make the election a referendum on Biden’s agenda, the last thing the White House wants is to push the issue into the mainstream.
Unfortunately, it doesn’t look as if they’ll have a choice.
A US recession is effectively certain in the next 12 months in new Bloomberg Economics model projections, a blow to President Joe Biden’s economic messaging ahead of the November midterms.
The prediction was a somber one.
The latest recession probability models by Bloomberg economists Anna Wong and Eliza Winger forecast a higher recession probability across all timeframes, with the 12-month estimate of a downturn by October 2023 hitting 100%, up from 65% for the comparable period in the previous update.
The forecast will be unwelcome news for Biden, who has repeatedly said the US will avoid a recession and that any downturn would be “very slight,” as he seeks to reassure Americans the economy is on solid footing under his administration.
The news could shake up the 2022 midterms in just a few weeks’ time, after the Democrats tried and failed to spin the narrative to abortion through their media surrogates.