The race for the second spot in Los Angeles’ mayoral runoff has tightened dramatically, with City Councilwoman Nithya Raman gaining ground after a series of large ballot counts released nearly a week after Election Day.
As of Saturday night, incumbent Mayor Karen Bass remained in first place and had already been projected by the Associated Press to advance to the November runoff. The unresolved question is who will join her.
With approximately 78% of ballots counted, Bass held 34.6% of the vote. Spencer Pratt, the former reality television personality and Republican candidate, stood at 27.3%. Raman was close behind at 26.2%, leaving just over one percentage point between the two candidates competing for second place.
The trend has been moving steadily in Raman’s favor.
On election night, Pratt appeared to have a comfortable advantage. He received 30.1% of the vote compared to Raman’s 20.2%, a gap of nearly ten percentage points. Within hours, additional ballot counts reduced that margin to seven points. By the time 63% of ballots had been counted the following day, the race had tightened further. On Thursday, with 71% of ballots counted, Pratt’s lead had narrowed to four points.
Subsequent ballot releases accelerated the shift.
Raman needed to beat Pratt by 8.7 points in the remaining vote today. Instead, she won this drop by 22.5 points, and it was a large batch.
That puts Nithya Raman on track to join Karen Bass in a November runoff between two Democrats. https://t.co/9YF7JCEjIW
— Zachary Donnini (@ZacharyDonnini) June 7, 2026
VoteHub head of data science Zachary Donnini noted that Raman significantly outperformed the pace she needed to catch Pratt.
“Raman needed to beat Pratt by 8.7 points in the remaining vote today. Instead, she won this drop by 22.5 points, and it was a large batch,” Donnini wrote on X. “That puts Nithya Raman on track to join Karen Bass in a November runoff between two Democrats.”
Additional analysis pointed to the importance of a Friday ballot release containing nearly 60,000 votes. According to media strategist Eric Seufert, that batch broke 39% for Raman, 34% for Bass, and 18% for Pratt.
Seufert described it as the largest ballot release since election night and the first major batch in which Raman received the highest share of votes.
The prospect of a Bass-Raman runoff would create a contest between two Democrats with differing political profiles.
Raman has built her reputation as one of the more progressive members of the Los Angeles City Council. She has been particularly active on housing and homelessness issues and notably opposed a city ordinance backed by Bass that targeted a homeless encampment in an area that had experienced violent crime. The measure ultimately passed despite her opposition.
Pratt entered the race as an unconventional candidate whose campaign gained attention through his criticism of Bass, particularly over her handling of the Palisades Fire in January 2025. Pratt lost his own home in the disaster and made the city’s response a central theme of his campaign.
In retrospect, Pratt may have underestimated Raman’s position in the race.
Days before the election, he dismissed her candidacy during an appearance on Fox News.
“She’s so irrelevant I think we should just focus on Bass,” Pratt said, citing prediction market data that showed her support declining after a debate.
The latest ballot counts suggest that assessment may have been premature.
