One year into his papacy, Pope Leo XIV is approaching a decision that could become one of the defining foreign policy and religious freedom questions of his tenure: whether to continue, modify, or eventually abandon the Vatican’s controversial agreement with China.
The accord, commonly known as the Sino-Vatican deal, was first signed in 2018 under Pope Francis. The agreement sought to ease decades of tension between the Vatican and Beijing by establishing a framework for appointing Catholic bishops in China. For years, Chinese Catholics had been divided between underground churches loyal to Rome and the state-controlled Chinese Catholic Patriotic Association, which operates under the supervision of the Chinese Communist Party.
The Vatican is considering renewing its secret deal with the Chinese Communist Party, giving political power over the appointment of bishops. The faithful in China are imprisoned & surveilled.
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The roots of the conflict stretch back to 1951, when Communist China severed diplomatic relations with the Vatican and moved to establish state control over Catholic institutions. The government later created the Chinese Catholic Patriotic Association, allowing Beijing to appoint bishops, oversee church operations, and shape religious practice without approval from Rome.
Pope Francis’ agreement attempted to bridge that divide by giving the Vatican a role in the selection of bishops while allowing Chinese authorities to maintain significant influence. Supporters argued that the arrangement could help unify Chinese Catholics and reduce tensions between underground and state-recognized churches. Critics, however, warned that the deal effectively legitimized government control over the Church while doing little to protect religious freedom.
Those concerns have only intensified in recent years.
Just days after Pope Francis died and before the conclave that elected Leo XIV had even begun, Chinese authorities moved ahead with the election of two bishops, a move many observers interpreted as an effort to reinforce Beijing’s authority regardless of who became pope.
Although Leo is not required to formally revisit the agreement until 2028, signs of his approach are already being closely scrutinized. In June 2025, the new pope appointed a bishop in China under the existing framework, an action viewed by some as an indication of continuity with Francis’ policy.
Yet questions remain about how committed Leo is to maintaining the arrangement long term.
Advocacy organizations focused on religious freedom argue that the Vatican has received little in return for its concessions. The Vulnerable People Project, a nonprofit focused on persecuted communities, contends that the agreement has coincided with continued repression of religious leaders and believers throughout China.
Among the cases frequently cited is that of Jimmy Lai, the Catholic publisher and democracy advocate who remains imprisoned in Hong Kong. When asked about Lai’s situation earlier this year, Pope Leo declined to comment publicly.
Critics also point to the cases of bishops and clergy who have reportedly been detained, disappeared, or placed under pressure by Chinese authorities. Advocacy campaigns have highlighted several church leaders who were arrested or went missing after opposing government policies or promoting religious teachings viewed as incompatible with Communist Party doctrine.
Jimmy Lai’s 20-year sentence is a death sentence—and a message to all Catholics.
The Vatican’s deal with China must end now. No more excuses.
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— The Jason Jones Show (@JasonJonesVPP) February 10, 2026
The debate extends beyond religious freedom concerns. Allegations involving forced organ harvesting have also drawn attention from human rights activists. Some critics argue that Vatican officials have been too willing to engage with Chinese government representatives despite longstanding accusations surrounding human rights abuses.
Jason Jones, founder of the Vulnerable People Project, has become one of the most vocal critics of the agreement. His organization has launched campaigns aimed at raising awareness among Catholic leaders worldwide, including efforts to distribute materials detailing allegations of religious persecution and organ harvesting in China.
For Jones and other opponents of the deal, the central argument is simple: they believe every concession made by the Vatican has been met with continued restrictions on religious freedom rather than meaningful improvements.
Supporters of engagement counter that maintaining dialogue with Beijing remains the best available path for preserving the Church’s presence in China and protecting millions of Catholics who live under Communist rule.
