As President Biden’s administration races toward the January 20 finish line, another major military aid package for Ukraine is expected to be announced—a hefty $1.25 billion infusion aimed at bolstering Ukraine’s defenses in the face of relentless Russian attacks. With time running out, the Biden administration appears determined to leave its mark on U.S.-Ukraine policy, ensuring Kyiv is as fortified as possible before President-elect Donald Trump takes office.
This latest package, drawn from presidential drawdown authority, will include critical munitions such as those for the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS) and the HAWK air defense system. Stinger missiles and significant supplies of 155 mm- and 105 mm artillery rounds are also part of the deal. These weapons are intended to reach Ukraine quickly, pulled directly from existing Pentagon stockpiles, bypassing the lengthy procurement processes typically associated with military aid.
The urgency of this aid becomes clear when examining the battlefield dynamics. In recent weeks, Russian forces have launched ferocious barrages against Ukraine’s power facilities, hoping to break civilian morale and disrupt critical infrastructure during the harsh winter months. Ukraine has managed to intercept many of these attacks, but the strain on their air defense systems is immense.
Meanwhile, fighting rages on in the Russian border region of Kursk, where Moscow has reportedly deployed thousands of North Korean troops to help regain lost ground. The fact that Russia is relying on foreign soldiers speaks volumes about the state of their military reserves—and the stakes at play.
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Biden just gave another $2.5 billion to Ukraine pic.twitter.com/sXNgKfioKq
— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) December 30, 2024
What makes this aid package especially noteworthy is its timing. With just weeks left in Biden’s term, senior defense officials have admitted they may not be able to fully deplete the $5.6 billion Congress allocated for Ukraine before Trump’s inauguration. After this package is sent, about $4.35 billion will remain in Pentagon stocks, along with an additional $1.2 billion allocated through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) for long-term weapons contracts.
This leaves a significant chunk of funding under the control of the incoming Trump administration—a reality that’s making both Ukrainian officials and European allies nervous.
President-elect Trump has made no secret of his intentions: he wants a negotiated settlement to the war, and he’s been vocal about reassessing America’s financial and military commitment to Ukraine. Trump’s critics fear he may cut off or drastically reduce aid, potentially weakening Ukraine’s position at the negotiating table.
The Biden administration isn’t being subtle about its intent. By rushing aid out the door now, they’re trying to ensure Ukraine is as well-positioned as possible, both on the battlefield and in any future peace talks. The goal is to make it politically and logistically difficult for Trump to reverse course without facing significant backlash.
But there’s an undeniable undercurrent of political gamesmanship here. While this aid will undoubtedly help Ukraine, it also serves to cement Biden’s legacy on this issue—an attempt to frame his presidency as steadfastly supportive of Ukraine, while setting up Trump to either follow suit or face the political consequences of pulling back.
If this package goes through, the United States will have provided over $64 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion began in February 2022. It’s a staggering sum, and one that reflects the high stakes of this conflict—not just for Ukraine, but for the broader geopolitical balance in Europe and beyond.
But this level of aid also raises questions about sustainability. American taxpayers are growing weary of open-ended commitments, especially when economic concerns at home remain top of mind. With inflation still biting and domestic infrastructure in need of investment, Trump’s calls for a more measured approach to Ukraine aid resonate with a significant portion of the electorate.
