The idea that Iran doesn’t have a nuclear weapons program in 2025 has become one of the most indefensible positions in modern intelligence history—right up there with “masks don’t work” and “the Wuhan lab leak is a conspiracy theory.” But here we are, decades later, and the U.S. Intelligence Community is still clinging to the rotting framework of the 2007 National Intelligence Estimate (NIE)—an assessment so narrow, so politically rigged, and so out of touch with reality that even former CIA Director James Schlesinger called it what it was: “stupid intelligence.”
I raised alarm bells about this when she was nominated but you chose to attack me over it anyway. There is no room for Iranian sympathizers in the national security team of the US. https://t.co/INNseHBTkB
— Nikki Haley (@NikkiHaley) April 20, 2025
Now, with Iran enriching enough uranium for a nuclear bomb in under a week, with secret weapons facilities uncovered, with clear violations of the JCPOA, and with evidence from the Iran Nuclear Archive showing bomb designs and covert research, America’s intelligence agencies are still claiming Iran’s nuclear weapons program is inactive—because they haven’t seen anyone screw a warhead onto a missile.
Let that sink in.
The 2007 NIE didn’t just get it wrong—it rewrote the rules to allow itself to be wrong. It redefined a “nuclear weapons program” to exclude everything that matters: enrichment, procurement, concealment, and the steady stockpiling of weapons-grade material. Unless Iranian scientists were caught literally assembling a bomb, the NIE insisted there was no “program.”
This was no innocent mistake. This was the State Department’s anti-Bush holdovers—Kenneth Brill, Vann Van Diepen, and Thomas Fingar—sabotaging the administration’s Iran policy from inside the intelligence system. The deep state wasn’t just a talking point back then. It acted, and it left a trail of global consequences in its wake.
Nikki Haley is attacking Tulsi because she is deeply, deeply jealous
Imagine referring to our DNI as an “Iranian sympathizer”
You might as well go put on one of those pink hats https://t.co/ytC7DoO01E
— Jack Poso 🇺🇸 (@JackPosobiec) April 22, 2025
Even U.S. allies didn’t buy the NIE’s fantasy. British, French, German, and Israeli intelligence agencies outright rejected it. German intelligence stated in 2008 that weapons development was clearly ongoing. But Washington, driven by internal political currents, let the assessment stick—and the Iranian regime has been hiding behind it ever since.
According to a February 2025 report by the Institute for Science and International Security, Iran now has the capability to fuel 14 nuclear weapons in four months. Just five years ago, they could only make two in the same time frame. The enrichment speed, scale, and secrecy leave zero room for ambiguity. The data is clear: Iran is preparing to weaponize its nuclear program.
The enrichment Iran claims is for “civilian use”? Laughable. They can’t even produce their own fuel rods for power reactors. They import them. And radiopharmaceuticals? Cheaper to buy on the open market. Iran is stockpiling enriched uranium for one reason only—to build a nuclear bomb.
Rep. Bacon was often the deciding vote on the House Armed Services Committee to keep DEI programs in the military that I was fighting against. I’m not surprised he opposes Hegseth and President Trump’s efforts. https://t.co/ckqnrBPJgn
— Jim Banks (@Jim_Banks) April 21, 2025
And let’s not forget the Iran Nuclear Archive seized by Israel in 2018. Bomb designs, warhead research, weaponization schematics. That’s not “hypothetical interest.” That’s blueprints for destruction. The IAEA has censured Iran repeatedly for stonewalling investigations and sanitizing covert sites after exposure. These aren’t misunderstandings. They’re coverups.
Yet despite all this, the 2025 Annual Threat Assessment still parrots the same tired line: “Iran is not building a nuclear weapon.” Why? Because Supreme Leader Khamenei hasn’t explicitly ordered it. That’s the Intelligence Community’s excuse. Iran’s nuclear trajectory is clear. But apparently, we need a written memo from Tehran’s theocracy saying “build the bomb now” before Washington will update its files.
This isn’t intelligence. It’s bureaucratic malpractice.
