CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten delivered a sobering dose of reality for Democrats on Wednesday, warning that the party is significantly underperforming historical benchmarks heading into the midterm elections.
Enten’s analysis, based on CNN’s latest polling and historical data, suggests that any hopes of a 2006- or 2018-style “blue wave” are, at least for now, unfounded.
In CNN’s most recent generic congressional ballot survey, Democrats lead Republicans by just two points — a margin Enten called underwhelming when compared to previous midterm cycles under a Republican president.
In both July 2006 and July 2017, Democrats held a seven-point advantage at this point in the election calendar. Those elections resulted in major Democratic gains and, ultimately, control of the House.
“Democrats are behind their 2006 and 2018 paces,” Enten said on-air. “In 2005, they were ahead by seven points. In 2017, also ahead by seven. And now? Just two points. That’s less than half of where they were in either of those cycles.”
Enten added that the Democratic Party hasn’t come close to closing the deal with voters. Despite months of negative media coverage of President Donald Trump and efforts to center the race around him, the polling shows that swing voters remain unconvinced.
Further weakening Democratic momentum is the seat-by-seat breakdown. Using the Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) as a benchmark, Enten noted that Republicans currently have a net pickup opportunity advantage of 12 seats. That stands in contrast to Democrats’ position in 2005 and 2017, when they were up by 7 and 33 seats, respectively.
“It’s not just the national numbers that are lagging,” Enten said. “When you go seat-by-seat, the advantage clearly favors Republicans. This cycle isn’t shaping up to look anything like those wave election years.”
He concluded by noting the stark contrast to 2024 — when many pundits expected Republicans to lose the House, but instead held it. “If you’re already writing the GOP House majority’s obituary, hold the phone,” Enten warned. “This is a reality check.”
