Here is the twist nobody saw coming in the Lone Star State. Just two years ago, President Donald Trump secured Texas by nearly 14 percentage points, but a fresh poll indicates the Senate contest there is now a perfect deadlock. That is the reality facing Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico as the election draws near.
A Fox News poll released Wednesday found the two candidates tied at 49% among likely voters. This is a massive shift from last month, when Talarico held a two-point edge. The contest is so tight it could end a losing streak for Democrats that has lasted more than 30 years in Texas.
Why is a reliably red state suddenly up for grabs? The answer lies in your wallet. Voters are still dealing with high fuel prices and affordability issues. Ken Paxton, the state attorney general, admitted this reality during his campaign. “It’s the price of gas, and I do feel people’s pain,” he told reporters.
Paxton noted that he visits all 105 counties in the state. He said that as gas prices went up, he felt more frustration from the people he met. He believes these rising costs are why his race is much closer than outside observers initially predicted. It is a simple economic truth that hits hard at the pump.
President Trump is stepping back into the fray to fix this problem. He is heading to Corpus Christi and then Lubbock in the final stretch of the campaign. These stops mark his fourth visit to Texas since Labor Day. He wants to rally Republican voters before the election.
Trump knows the stakes are high. During a rally in Park City, Kansas, he asked voters to ignore the fact that he is not on the ballot this year. “In this election, I’m asking you to pretend please that I’m on the ballot,” Trump said. He added, “Just pretend.” His message is clear: the national mood still drives local results.
The outcome in Texas will help decide if the GOP keeps its slim 53-seat majority in the Senate. The race is one of about a dozen contests that will determine the future of the upper chamber. Republicans are trying to maintain and even grow their lead.
However, the data shows Democrats have a slight edge in energy. The latest poll found 69% of Democrats say they are extremely interested in the election. Only 61% of Republicans feel the same way. Also, while 98% of Democrats support Talarico, only 90% of Republicans back Paxton. The internal resistance within the GOP party is a real hurdle.
Over the past few years, Paxton has been battered by a slew of scandals and legal problems. He defeated Sen. John Cornyn in a contentious primary battle that went into overtime. Now he must win over a skeptical electorate. The race is a true toss-up in a state that used to be a lock.
The final answer comes down to the next few days of voting. Early voting is already underway across the state. The numbers show a nation divided on the economy and the direction of the country. The result will tell us if the price of gas can truly unseat a powerful incumbent.
