In a recent Emerson College poll conducted from October 16 to 17, former President Donald Trump has surged ahead in the race for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, garnering an impressive 59 percent of support on the national level. Trump’s popularity appears to be soaring as his primary and caucus opponents lag far behind in single digits.
The closest competitors to the former president are former Gov. Nikki Haley of South Carolina and Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, each securing eight percent of the respondents’ support. Not far behind them is former Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey, with a four percent share of the poll. Additionally, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and former Vice President Mike Pence are both vying for second place, each capturing three percent of the vote.
The poll also reveals that Trump’s appeal extends across the Republican spectrum, with Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, Gov. Doug Burgum of North Dakota, conservative radio host Larry Elder, businessman Perry Johnson, and former Gov. Asa Hutchinson of Arkansas each securing just one percent of the responses. Nevertheless, it’s essential to note that a significant ten percent of respondents remain undecided in this closely watched primary race.
📊 2024 National GOP Primary
Trump 60% (+3)
DeSantis 11% (+1)
Haley 7% (+1)
Ramaswamy 6% (-2)
Trump 71% (+2)
DeSantis 29% (-2)
Trump 78% (+4)
Haley 22% (-4)
[Change vs Sept.]
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 21, 2023
Furthermore, in a hypothetical general election matchup between the leading candidates of the two major political parties, Donald Trump holds a slight edge over President Joe Biden. The poll indicates that Trump enjoys a 47 percent to 45 percent advantage over the incumbent president, a lead that barely falls within the credibility interval of ±2.4 percent. In this scenario, eight percent of respondents are undecided.
Of note is Trump’s performance with independent voters, where he leads Biden by a margin of 44 percent to 40 percent. Trump’s appeal is also evident among younger voters, with 45 percent supporting him in the 2024 race compared to 43 percent for Biden. Notably, voters under 30 are the most undecided age group, with 12 percent yet to make up their minds.
The Emerson College Polling Executive Director, Spencer Kimball, highlighted the shifting dynamics among young voters, emphasizing that Trump’s performance in this demographic has improved since the 2020 election. Kimball noted that in the hypothetical matchup against Bernie Sanders, Trump maintains a strong presence among younger voters, with 45 percent supporting Sanders and 42 percent backing Trump.
In a separate hypothetical matchup between President Biden and outgoing Sen. Mitt Romney, Biden leads with 40 percent of the responses compared to Romney’s 30 percent, leaving approximately three in ten voters undecided.
The Emerson College poll sampled 1,578 registered voters nationally, and the credibility interval for the entire sample is ±2.4 percentage points. While the credibility interval for the GOP primary portion is not specified, the results demonstrate that Donald Trump has emerged as a formidable force in the race for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination and a strong contender in a potential general election contest against President Biden.
2024 Hypothetical Presidential Election
— Emerson College Polling (@EmersonPolling) October 20, 2023